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Monthly Archives: October 2012
How Could Hurricane Sandy Affect the Election?
Many political scientists and commentators have been asking this question in recent days. For one answer, you can see Mike Munger’s thoughts in Duke Today yesterday. In this post I will consider one unlikely but interesting scenario: what could happen … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged behavior, democracy, elections, forecasting, history, hurricane, meteorology, natural disaster, political science, politics, prediction, public opinion, rationality, weather
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What Did Manifest Destiny Look Like?
“Manifest Destiny was the belief widely held by Americans in the 19th century that the United States was destined to expand across the continent. The concept, born out of ‘a sense of mission to redeem the Old World’, was enabled by … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged American history, American politics, economics, education, elections, geography, graphics, history, how-to, maps, Mexico, political science, politics, voting, war
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What is the Future of Publishing?
Today’s journal publishing system is the best possible. If you limit yourself to 17th century technology, that is. Quips like these were sprinkled throughout Jason Priem’s presentation on altmetrics at Duke on Monday. Altmetrics is short for “alternative metrics,” or … Continue reading
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Tagged academica, behavior, communication, ethical statistics, history, how-to, media, philosophy of science, political science, research, science
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When Will Cuba Experience Regime Change?
I do not have a specific, model-based prediction, but I will go on record here as saying that I expect Cuba’s current regime to fall within 4-5 years. My hunch is based on Cuba’s easing of travel restrictions. The BBC’s … Continue reading
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Afghanistan Casualties Over Time and Space
The data comes from the Defense Casualty Analysis System for Operation Enduring Freedom. Here it is over time: Notice the seasonality of deaths in Afghanistan, likely due to the harsh winters. Here is the same data plotted across space (service … Continue reading
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Tagged Afghanistan, casualties, data, foreign policy, graphics, Iraq, Middle East, political science, politics, public opinion, R, statistics, violence, war
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What Are the Chances Your Vote Will Matter?
Only one vote matters. In the United States, the vote that gives a presidential candidate the majority in the state that tips the electoral college decides it all. Nevertheless, about 122 million US voters went to the polls for the … Continue reading
Atwood on Internet Communities and Politics
Jeff Atwood, creator of Stack Overflow and Stack Exchange, has collated some of his best blog posts into an ebook. The “Stack” sites are question-and-answer fora, often with valuable, timely feedback. In “The Vast and Endless Sea,” Atwood describes the … Continue reading
Micro-Institutions Everywhere: Elevators
On your own, you can do whatever you want – it’s your own little box. If there are two of you, you take different corners. Standing diagonally across from each other creates the greatest distance. When a third person enters, … Continue reading
Simulating the NLDS: Can the Giants Win?
In Allen Downey’s new book, Think Bayes, he relates the “Boston Bruins” problem. The problem is to estimate the Bruins’ probability of winning the 2010-2011 NHL championship after two wins and two losses. I will briefly describe Downey’s approach, and … Continue reading
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Tagged baseball, data, fun, programming, Python, R, simulation, sports, statistics
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New Conflict Forecasting Website
Wardlab is the working group run by Michael D. Ward. The lab has a new website: mdwardlab.com. You can find out about our ongoing projects, download software packages, or follow the Conflict Forecast blog. The team includes some really smart … Continue reading
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Tagged conflict, data, forecasting, international relations, political science, politics, prediction, programming, research, security studies, statistics, violence, war
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