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Tag Archives: prediction
Review: Everything is Obvious
Everything is Obvious (Once You Know the Answer), by Duncan Watts, had been on my wishlist for a while before my sister gave it to me for my birthday. I was already sympathetic to the book’s key point: many conclusions … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged behavior, data, economics, education, ethical statistics, history, information cascades, political science, politics, prediction, research, sociology, statistics, violence, war
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How Could Hurricane Sandy Affect the Election?
Many political scientists and commentators have been asking this question in recent days. For one answer, you can see Mike Munger’s thoughts in Duke Today yesterday. In this post I will consider one unlikely but interesting scenario: what could happen … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged behavior, democracy, elections, forecasting, history, hurricane, meteorology, natural disaster, political science, politics, prediction, public opinion, rationality, weather
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New Conflict Forecasting Website
Wardlab is the working group run by Michael D. Ward. The lab has a new website: mdwardlab.com. You can find out about our ongoing projects, download software packages, or follow the Conflict Forecast blog. The team includes some really smart … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged conflict, data, forecasting, international relations, political science, politics, prediction, programming, research, security studies, statistics, violence, war
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PolMeth 2012 Round-Up, Part 2
Yesterday I discussed Thursday’s papers and posters from the 2012 Meeting of the Political Methodology Society. Today I’ll describe the projects I saw on Friday, again in the order listed in the program. Any attendees who chose a different set … Continue reading
Transportation as an information problem
In some previous posts I looked at Joe’s question about the causes of traffic and compared them to mass transit (ie rail) options. I recently returned from an excellent trip to the Bay Area–in which I found myself using BART even … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Arab Spring, game theory, information problem, prediction, social science, transportation
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