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Tag Archives: probability
Statistical Thinking and the Birth of Modern Computing
What do fighter pilots, casinos, and streetlights all have in common? These three disparate topics are all the subject of statistical thinking that led to (and benefitted from) the development of modern computing. This process is described in Turing’s Cathedral by George … Continue reading
Modeling Third-Party Intervention in Civil Wars
Inspired by the 2011 coalition action in Libya, Shahryar Minhas and I recently developed a new agent-based model of third-party intervention in civil wars. If you are attending the ISSS/ISAC conference in Chapel Hill, you will get a chance to … Continue reading
Voter Loyalty in Two Countries
Preliminary graphs from an ongoing project with Pablo Beramendi (apologies for the very plain presentation): For both plots, the loyalty rate is calculated as the probability that an individual votes for party x in election t given that they voted … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged behavior, data, elections, political science, politics, probability, R, statistics
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Getting Started with Prediction
From historians to financial analysts, researchers of all stripes are interested in prediction. Prediction asks the question, “given what I know so far, what do I expect will come next?” In the current political season, presidential election forecasts abound. This … Continue reading
Posted in Technical, Uncategorized
Tagged artificial intelligence, expectation, genetics, history, information technology, mathematics, politics, probability, programming, Python, regression, Ruby, statistics, technical
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How Do We Define Risk?
Statistics are famous for their pliability, as anyone who has heard of Mark Twain will attest. Proponents on either side of a policy position often have”hard numbers” to support their view. When costs or benefits are uncertain, there must be … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged behavior, ethical statistics, ethics, politics, probability, rationality, risk, security, statistics, terrorism
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